Basics of sports betting
First of all, when betting, there is nothing that is 100% safe, that there would then be a 1.00 odds offer on the bookie. Therefore, everything is based on the probability of an event occurring, Each bookmaker event is evaluated by complex mathematical and statistical processes with a certain probability to happen. The product of this evaluation is the quota that is placed in the offer of betting on a particular event, and as such it is presented to you as the ultimate player and user. It is still based on your assessment and information, whether a pair is worth playing by a certain (offered quota) and to what extent.
What is the quota? How are the quotas counted?
Quota is the ultimate product of complex mathematical and statistical research and estimates by bookies, which represent the likelihood of an event occurring.
In the quota process, a large number of factors are involved (the tradition of mutual encounters, the form, the importance of the match for each team, the absence of key players, injuries, etc.). Each of these factors on a given risk scale contributes to the appropriate end product - odds - that is to the player.
As a rule, lower (less) quotas are estimated at a lower risk, and more quotas are higher. But that's not always a blind rule.
Value Bet
What is Value Bet? The value bet would be the easiest to present a bet at a certain quota worth playing, under the terms offered. It should not be mistaken that Value Bet is ALWAYS associated with higher odds, as most people consider. Namely, here's what this is about:
If you are offered a 1.60 odd odds on an event, bookmakers believe that the event is likely to happen 1 / 1.60 = 0.625 * 100% = 62.5%.
If you think that the likelihood of this event is higher than that offered (based on different information - for example, the form of the player, the significance of the match, absences, etc.), and it is 70% according to you, that would mean that this quota should be 1 / 1.7 = 0.428 * 100% = 1.428
Since your estimated odds are less than the one you set, it's a value bet. Whether this is really a value bet, depends on many factors, and above all, how much your ability to realistically assess this situation.
Odds and margins betting
As an example of spotting how to determine the margins of bookmakers, you can see at the odds of a single online bookmaker betting between Chelsea and Wolverhampton. We will take, for example, only the offered odds to the final outcome of this match (1, X, 2) and they amount to 1-1.10; X-8.54; 2-24,15;
According to this, it points to the following:
Winning Chelsea: 100 / 1.10 = 90.90%
Outcome: 100 / 8.54 = 11.71%
Winning Wolves: 100 / 24.15 = 4.14%
The sum of these percentages gives a total probability of: 106.75%.
You wonder how it's possible that this amount is over 100%? Exactly the value that exists over the 100% figure represents the profit margin of the bookmaker for a particular match. In this case, the profit margin (Bookies overround) is 6.75%. Which means that the betting company, as a bidders, makes a secure 6.75% for every 100 invested units at this meeting, regardless of how the match ended (1, X, 2).
It is important to note that margins differ between different pairs on offer. Margins are usually larger in 'certain' encounters, to which the odds are sometimes unrealistically low. Therefore, as a player, you aim to choose a bookie with small margins of profit, because it automatically means a higher quota, and you potentially more profit, for the same amount of money invested.
Also margins vary from bookie to bookie. As a rule, they are lower on online bookmakers (4-15%) than in local bookmakers (10% or more).
Decrease and increase in odds
You must have had a chance to see people coming to a free place saying: "Give me that for so much and so much money, drop odds on the internet" This is one of the easiest ways to stay free of money in your pocket. The odds and the growth of odds can give us serves as an INDICATOR for a certain pair, and ANY BASIC CRITERIA when selecting a type.
A drop in odds CAN OR DOES NOT MUST signal the error of the bookie because there are several reasons why a quota is falling, but these are the most common:
1. The emergence of new information related to a specific team (player injuries, coach shifts, poor financial situation, etc.)
2. Great payments to a certain type (in this you can not be quite sure never because the book keeps information about payments as a snake's leg)
3. Deliberately quitting the quota by the book of the so-called. "Squinting", precisely because of the above-mentioned type of player who only runs the odds in the fall.
For the above reasons, one conclusion is drawn, if on a match of a quota drop, be sure to inform yourself about this match (team teams, news in clubs, ...) and then merely think about whether it makes sense to what odds are falling. If it turns out that the odds are falling due to some of the reasons listed above (player violations, coach shifts, bad financial situation, ...) it still does not mean that this pair is worth playing, because it is possible that the drop is so much that the odds lost all value . For example, you estimate that the odds are 1 in real 1.80, you look at the bookie and you see that the odds are 2.00, so you have the value, but notice that the odds started to fall. You are informed about the drop and you see that the guests do not play 2 standard slots and the most effective striker, and still play for the next 3 days the next game that is more important than this. You think and conclude that it is worth playing 1 and 1.70 at odds, going to but you see there the odds fell to 1.60. If your estimate is around 1.70 correct, then DO NOT RETURN to play at 1.60, no matter how much it seems that 1 must come. But what if a quota falls and you, despite all your efforts, can not find information why this is so? First and foremost, remember that bookmakers think differently from us. In principle, after the initial setting of the quota, they are very interested in novelties about the composition of the teams, injuries, etc. At that point, they only monitor the movement of money and payments. If their security system shows them at any time that with the current payout relationship they may be in the minus, they only then begin to examine why, for example, the mass went to play at 1.If they found some information that would justify the moves of the quota, But more importantly, even if they do not find any information, and if their re-calculation shows that their initial quotes are OK, KRECE SWEET QUALITY is still, because such a market law is trying to make payments more expensive. How? So let's take the example above, so you came to the bookmaker (or on the net) you see that the odds fell to 1.60. Casinos, I will not play 1.60, but to see how X or 2 is? And on these two signs there is a rise in quota. And then you conclude that you have higher value to play against 1 and pay for it. Then there is a leveling on the market and the book is going out of the red zone until the start of the match, and they come back to profit again. Of course, the masses of people who are lying are too lazy to do all these things properly, but simply go through the system, falling the quota to pay it.
Public bet
Public Bet, the most commonly translated, can be considered as a pair on most of the played ticket (not essentially whether in singles, combined or systemic). Usually in these situations, often the same type is concerned.
Bookies have an insight into all the paid tickets in their bookie (because they are more interconnected than players), they know at all times what a public bet is. Such matches, by some unwritten rule, should be bypassed because they usually 'weird end'. Why and how it is so in situations like this 'where a couple has to come' I would not be more detailed. But with simple mathematics, it is easier to conclude that it is necessary to ensure that such a pair sometimes does not pass (even it does not often have to happen, enough several times a month) so that most of the ticket is lost, exactly those on which the public bet is. So, if you go to a bookmaker with the goal of playing a pair and you see that everyone is already playing it because "there is no chance not to come" or "some guests are in failure, they miss the half of the team" or "drop in odds" or so, then Think carefully about whether to play it, because if you know at home that this "must come", then imagine how much they are paying for that pair all over the world and how many bookies have to pay if that couple comes in. The same goes for if you come across a partner who tells you "I have info for one pair of 100% passes, sent me a brother from aunt whose girlfriend or sister is from a little boy playing in the Czech Republic" or worse if someone offers you "to buy first-hand information for only XXX EUR "Such things are more commonly known as" Dojave ".
Arbitrage bet (Safe betting)
This is the ONE way of betting where your PROFIT IS PROTECTED. Since everything has its own "but" which is a disadvantage, it's here too. This betting mode guarantees you a profit, but it's a very small percentage (rarely over 3%) and in 99% of cases is possible exclusively over the Internet. Namely, this betting method is based on the comparison of odds in several bookmakers and the search for the so-called. "Miss-match odds" or odds where variations from betting to betting odds for the same couple are sufficient to with a well-calculated bet guarantee the profit regardless of the final outcome. In fact, by matching odds for the same couple, we try to reduce the margin margin below zero, ie . to go to the minus. The bigger the minus, the higher the profit for us. The budget is based on the highest odds, for a certain type of game, of various betting, according to the example we calculate margins of bookmakers. In this case we have Arbitrage Bet if our sum of probability for all three outcomes is below 100%.
First of all, when betting, there is nothing that is 100% safe, that there would then be a 1.00 odds offer on the bookie. Therefore, everything is based on the probability of an event occurring, Each bookmaker event is evaluated by complex mathematical and statistical processes with a certain probability to happen. The product of this evaluation is the quota that is placed in the offer of betting on a particular event, and as such it is presented to you as the ultimate player and user. It is still based on your assessment and information, whether a pair is worth playing by a certain (offered quota) and to what extent.
What is the quota? How are the quotas counted?
Quota is the ultimate product of complex mathematical and statistical research and estimates by bookies, which represent the likelihood of an event occurring.
In the quota process, a large number of factors are involved (the tradition of mutual encounters, the form, the importance of the match for each team, the absence of key players, injuries, etc.). Each of these factors on a given risk scale contributes to the appropriate end product - odds - that is to the player.
As a rule, lower (less) quotas are estimated at a lower risk, and more quotas are higher. But that's not always a blind rule.
Value Bet
What is Value Bet? The value bet would be the easiest to present a bet at a certain quota worth playing, under the terms offered. It should not be mistaken that Value Bet is ALWAYS associated with higher odds, as most people consider. Namely, here's what this is about:
If you are offered a 1.60 odd odds on an event, bookmakers believe that the event is likely to happen 1 / 1.60 = 0.625 * 100% = 62.5%.
If you think that the likelihood of this event is higher than that offered (based on different information - for example, the form of the player, the significance of the match, absences, etc.), and it is 70% according to you, that would mean that this quota should be 1 / 1.7 = 0.428 * 100% = 1.428
Since your estimated odds are less than the one you set, it's a value bet. Whether this is really a value bet, depends on many factors, and above all, how much your ability to realistically assess this situation.
Odds and margins betting
As an example of spotting how to determine the margins of bookmakers, you can see at the odds of a single online bookmaker betting between Chelsea and Wolverhampton. We will take, for example, only the offered odds to the final outcome of this match (1, X, 2) and they amount to 1-1.10; X-8.54; 2-24,15;
According to this, it points to the following:
Winning Chelsea: 100 / 1.10 = 90.90%
Outcome: 100 / 8.54 = 11.71%
Winning Wolves: 100 / 24.15 = 4.14%
The sum of these percentages gives a total probability of: 106.75%.
You wonder how it's possible that this amount is over 100%? Exactly the value that exists over the 100% figure represents the profit margin of the bookmaker for a particular match. In this case, the profit margin (Bookies overround) is 6.75%. Which means that the betting company, as a bidders, makes a secure 6.75% for every 100 invested units at this meeting, regardless of how the match ended (1, X, 2).
It is important to note that margins differ between different pairs on offer. Margins are usually larger in 'certain' encounters, to which the odds are sometimes unrealistically low. Therefore, as a player, you aim to choose a bookie with small margins of profit, because it automatically means a higher quota, and you potentially more profit, for the same amount of money invested.
Also margins vary from bookie to bookie. As a rule, they are lower on online bookmakers (4-15%) than in local bookmakers (10% or more).
Decrease and increase in odds
You must have had a chance to see people coming to a free place saying: "Give me that for so much and so much money, drop odds on the internet" This is one of the easiest ways to stay free of money in your pocket. The odds and the growth of odds can give us serves as an INDICATOR for a certain pair, and ANY BASIC CRITERIA when selecting a type.
A drop in odds CAN OR DOES NOT MUST signal the error of the bookie because there are several reasons why a quota is falling, but these are the most common:
1. The emergence of new information related to a specific team (player injuries, coach shifts, poor financial situation, etc.)
2. Great payments to a certain type (in this you can not be quite sure never because the book keeps information about payments as a snake's leg)
3. Deliberately quitting the quota by the book of the so-called. "Squinting", precisely because of the above-mentioned type of player who only runs the odds in the fall.
For the above reasons, one conclusion is drawn, if on a match of a quota drop, be sure to inform yourself about this match (team teams, news in clubs, ...) and then merely think about whether it makes sense to what odds are falling. If it turns out that the odds are falling due to some of the reasons listed above (player violations, coach shifts, bad financial situation, ...) it still does not mean that this pair is worth playing, because it is possible that the drop is so much that the odds lost all value . For example, you estimate that the odds are 1 in real 1.80, you look at the bookie and you see that the odds are 2.00, so you have the value, but notice that the odds started to fall. You are informed about the drop and you see that the guests do not play 2 standard slots and the most effective striker, and still play for the next 3 days the next game that is more important than this. You think and conclude that it is worth playing 1 and 1.70 at odds, going to but you see there the odds fell to 1.60. If your estimate is around 1.70 correct, then DO NOT RETURN to play at 1.60, no matter how much it seems that 1 must come. But what if a quota falls and you, despite all your efforts, can not find information why this is so? First and foremost, remember that bookmakers think differently from us. In principle, after the initial setting of the quota, they are very interested in novelties about the composition of the teams, injuries, etc. At that point, they only monitor the movement of money and payments. If their security system shows them at any time that with the current payout relationship they may be in the minus, they only then begin to examine why, for example, the mass went to play at 1.If they found some information that would justify the moves of the quota, But more importantly, even if they do not find any information, and if their re-calculation shows that their initial quotes are OK, KRECE SWEET QUALITY is still, because such a market law is trying to make payments more expensive. How? So let's take the example above, so you came to the bookmaker (or on the net) you see that the odds fell to 1.60. Casinos, I will not play 1.60, but to see how X or 2 is? And on these two signs there is a rise in quota. And then you conclude that you have higher value to play against 1 and pay for it. Then there is a leveling on the market and the book is going out of the red zone until the start of the match, and they come back to profit again. Of course, the masses of people who are lying are too lazy to do all these things properly, but simply go through the system, falling the quota to pay it.
Public bet
Public Bet, the most commonly translated, can be considered as a pair on most of the played ticket (not essentially whether in singles, combined or systemic). Usually in these situations, often the same type is concerned.
Bookies have an insight into all the paid tickets in their bookie (because they are more interconnected than players), they know at all times what a public bet is. Such matches, by some unwritten rule, should be bypassed because they usually 'weird end'. Why and how it is so in situations like this 'where a couple has to come' I would not be more detailed. But with simple mathematics, it is easier to conclude that it is necessary to ensure that such a pair sometimes does not pass (even it does not often have to happen, enough several times a month) so that most of the ticket is lost, exactly those on which the public bet is. So, if you go to a bookmaker with the goal of playing a pair and you see that everyone is already playing it because "there is no chance not to come" or "some guests are in failure, they miss the half of the team" or "drop in odds" or so, then Think carefully about whether to play it, because if you know at home that this "must come", then imagine how much they are paying for that pair all over the world and how many bookies have to pay if that couple comes in. The same goes for if you come across a partner who tells you "I have info for one pair of 100% passes, sent me a brother from aunt whose girlfriend or sister is from a little boy playing in the Czech Republic" or worse if someone offers you "to buy first-hand information for only XXX EUR "Such things are more commonly known as" Dojave ".
Arbitrage bet (Safe betting)
This is the ONE way of betting where your PROFIT IS PROTECTED. Since everything has its own "but" which is a disadvantage, it's here too. This betting mode guarantees you a profit, but it's a very small percentage (rarely over 3%) and in 99% of cases is possible exclusively over the Internet. Namely, this betting method is based on the comparison of odds in several bookmakers and the search for the so-called. "Miss-match odds" or odds where variations from betting to betting odds for the same couple are sufficient to with a well-calculated bet guarantee the profit regardless of the final outcome. In fact, by matching odds for the same couple, we try to reduce the margin margin below zero, ie . to go to the minus. The bigger the minus, the higher the profit for us. The budget is based on the highest odds, for a certain type of game, of various betting, according to the example we calculate margins of bookmakers. In this case we have Arbitrage Bet if our sum of probability for all three outcomes is below 100%.
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